Six decisions.
About four minutes.
These are quick judgment calls, the kind that cross a desk before the second coffee. Your answers are anonymous and feed a live pool we will open together in session.
Go with your first answer. Speed beats deliberation here, and that is the point.
Decision 01 / 06
You lead a division where a sudden downturn puts 600 jobs at risk. Your team brings you two restructuring plans. Under Plan Alpha, exactly 200 of the 600 jobs will be saved. Under Plan Beta, there is a one‑in‑three chance that all 600 jobs are saved, and a two‑in‑three chance that none are saved.
You lead a division where a sudden downturn puts 600 jobs at risk. Your team brings you two restructuring plans. Under Plan Alpha, exactly 400 of the 600 jobs will be lost. Under Plan Beta, there is a one‑in‑three chance that no jobs are lost, and a two‑in‑three chance that all 600 jobs are lost.
Choose a plan to continue.
Decision 02 / 06
Walmart is the world’s largest private employer. Do you think Walmart employs more or fewer than 300,0003,000,000 people worldwide?
Pick more or fewer, and enter a number.
Decision 03 / 06
You are president of an aerospace company. You have invested $9 million of a $10 million R&D budget to develop a surveillance drone that cannot be detected by radar. With the project 90% complete, a competitor begins selling a radar‑invisible drone that is faster and cheaper than yours will be. Do you invest the last $1 million to finish your drone?
You are president of an aerospace company. You have $1 million of R&D budget remaining. An engineer proposes spending it to develop a surveillance drone that cannot be detected by radar. A competitor already sells a radar‑invisible drone that is faster and cheaper than the one you would build. Do you invest the $1 million?
Choose yes or no to continue.
Decision 04 / 06
Mark is 41. He trained as an engineer, is analytically sharp, and as a student was deeply involved in environmental activism. Which is more probable?
Choose an option to continue.
Decision 05 / 06
For each item, give a low and a high estimate so that you are 90% confident the true value falls between them. Ranges can be as wide as you like.
Length of the Nile River, in miles
Year the first Nobel Prizes were awarded
Number of member states in the United Nations
Enter a low and high number for all three items.
Decision 06 / 06
You are offered a single flip of a fair coin. Tails, you pay $100 of your own money. Heads, you win $X.
Enter a dollar amount.
Enter an amount to continue.
Your answers joined the pool.
We will open the results together in session. You may recognize yourself.
Anonymous. No individual responses are shown. Run it again on this device (for testing only).